FitzGerald Campaign Hits its Stride

Executive Summary

Ed FitzGerald’s campaign in Ohio’s 7th Congressional District is demonstrating the core indicators of a competitive Red-to-Blue pickup opportunity: improving polling, sustained fundraising strength, disciplined execution, and a scalable voter-contact program. Early and deliberate investment in digital and social media has allowed the campaign to define the race ahead of schedule and efficiently engage the suburban and independent voters who will decide OH-07. 

Internal polling suggests that FitzGerald’s opponents for the Democratic nomination are nominal and that FitzGerald has an early lead in the head-to-head matchup against Republican Max Miller. The campaign has gained significant traction with the national grassroots, converting rising online energy into a remarkable and expanding small-dollar fundraising operation. In short, the FitzGerald campaign is positioned to remain competitive through Election Day giving Democrats a potential pickup with FitzGerald on the ballot.

Polling and District Dynamics

In early December 2025, the FitzGerald for Congress Committee partnered with Dettman Global Strategies to field a series of SMS-based survey research targeting registered/likely voters in Ohio’s 7th Congressional District. The results of this research describes a race that is very favorable to the FitzGerald campaign overall. Unsurprisingly, Primary Election ballot tests demonstrate FitzGerald’s continued consolidation of Democratic Party voters behind his candidacy. At the same time, the results reveal notable strength in the General Election match-up between FitzGerald and incumbent Max Miller. In a Republican-leaning district that has been targeted as a potential Red-to-Blue pick up in 2026, this survey of 300 likely voters shows FitzGerald at 40%, Miller at 38%, and 22% undecided.  

This proprietary, internal polling was conducted to inform campaign decision-making. The findings reflect confidential voter sentiment gathered through a controlled sampling methodology that includes SMS-based outreach to authenticated voters, supplemented by additional voter file-driven sampling channels. These data are designed to help guide strategic planning. The results are time-sensitive, directional in nature, and intended solely for campaign leadership and authorized partners.  

Democratic Primary

The primary election will be held on May 5, 2026. To date, four candidates have declared for the Democratic nomination. Among likely Democratic primary voters, respondents showed FitzGerald as the clear favorite, with a nearly insurmountable lead over other potential candidates. FitzGerald is the only candidate well known to the respondents in the primary field and his numbers have a great deal of potential to grow as he continues to consolidate Democratic Party voters.

General Election Ballot Test

FitzGerald vs. Miller – All Likely Voters (n = 300*):

• Ed FitzGerald (D): 40%

• Max Miller (R): 38%

• Undecided / Other: 22%

Message Testing 

After the initial horse race questions, message testing was conducted. This portion of the survey demonstrated clear differentiation in voter response based on thematic framing and narrative emphasis. When respondents were exposed to structured comparative messaging, beginning with introductory biography content and followed by clear contrast statements, support for the campaign increased measurably. The strongest resonance emerged from messages that highlighted personal qualifications, economic stewardship, and community-oriented outcomes, particularly when juxtaposed against Max Miller’s policy and personal shortcomings.

Partisan & Independent Patterns

• Republicans: Miller performs worse among Republican voters than would be expected for a typical Republican candidate in a Republican-leaning district.

• Democrats: FitzGerald performs better among Democratic voters than would be expected for a typical Democrat in this district.

• Independents: Miller underperforms and FitzGerald overperforms among independents, with FitzGerald holding a clear advantage in this group.

Notes on Methodology

The survey was conducted among a sample of 300 likely voters, drawn from a validated voter file and contacted primarily via SMS-based invitations directing respondents to the secure survey instrument. The survey carries an approximate margin of error of ±5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval, assuming a random distribution of responses within the likely voter universe. Mobile numbers were matched to voter file records to ensure respondent eligibility and accuracy of demographic attribution. The sample was structured to achieve geographic and partisan balance consistent with likely electorate composition, and post-field weighting was applied. 

Fundraising and Financial Viability

The fundraising performance of the campaign is a clear demonstration of the FitzGerald Campaign’s deepening connection with the national grassroots of the Democratic Party. An early investment in Digital and Social Media has led to a recent dramatic upsurge of thousands of small-dollar contributions. The early engagement has turned into small-dollar donations, which will then turn into funding that will make the FitzGerald campaign the most competitive Democratic challenger in OH-7 in at least a decade.

• Within one week of launching digital fundraising, the campaign total amount raised was more than $50,000. The previous Democratic nominee in OH-7 raised $82,000 for the entire election cycle.

• Small-dollar participation stands at more than 3,000 contributors with an average contribution of $17.34, allowing significant donor upgrade potential.

• While FitzGerald maintains a significant Ohio donor base from previous elective office, the social media-driven solicitations have yielded contributions from nearly every state.

Early Digital and Social Media Strategy

A defining strength of this campaign has been its early and sustained investment in digital and social media, aligned with the campaign’s priorities around cost efficiency and persuasion. This investment was well ahead of the typical congressional timeline, allowing the campaign to (re)introduce Ed FitzGerald and define the contrast before Republican attacks escalate. Organic and authentic video content has driven strong engagement among disaffected Republicans, suburban independents, younger voters, and ticket-splitters—key swing constituencies in OH-07. The campaign’s early methodological testing enabled rapid deployment of messaging, creative, and targeting, informing later-stage communications across platforms. Importantly, the campaign is building a digital strategy that is fully integrated, creating a multiplier effect across campaign functions.

Campaign Infrastructure and Readiness

The FitzGerald campaign has built a fully operational, professional infrastructure designed to compete at scale. The campaign headquarters serves as a centralized hub for field, communications, and digital operations, including an in-house digital production studio that enables rapid-response content and high-quality social media execution. The campaign is supported by a team of nationally recognized consultants across polling, media, digital, and compliance, ensuring best-in-class strategy and execution. Core operational systems—data, finance, compliance, and voter contact—are staffed and integrated, allowing the campaign to deploy resources efficiently and respond quickly as the race intensifies. The campaign is executing on time, on budget, and with clear metrics guiding decision-making.

Strategic Outlook

Ohio’s 7th Congressional District fits squarely within the national Red-to-Blue House battlefield. The district is suburbanizing, competitive, and responsive to a center-left, solutions-oriented Democratic message. The FitzGerald campaign has shown the ability to move numbers, raise the resources necessary to compete, and deploy them effectively, particularly through early digital investment. With sustained engagement and strategic support, this race remains a strong opportunity to be a part of a new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.